How to estimate the market size for a product in a country

To estimate the market size of a product in a country, start from imports: how many tonnes or pieces, and how much value, enter the country in a full year. If the product is also made locally, add local production and subtract exports. Then check the figure from the other side: how many companies import the product and how much each of them buys. The result is a range, not one exact number, and the part of it you can realistically win is smaller still.

This guide is about the size of the market. How to read one country's imports in detail (supplier countries, prices, concentration, seasons) is covered in our guide How to analyse imports of a product by HS code.

Step 1. Define the market precisely

"The market for packaging in Kazakhstan" cannot be measured. "Imports of corrugated cardboard boxes into Kazakhstan over 12 months, in tonnes and US dollars" can. Decide five things before you count:

• The product code. The HS code is the international product code used in foreign trade. Its first 6 digits mean the same in almost every country; each country adds more digits for its national code. Choose the narrowest code that still covers your product.
• The country. Decide whether you mean one country or a group of countries with common trade rules, such as the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
• The unit. Tonnes, pieces, litres or square metres. Use the unit buyers use when they order.
• The period. A full 12 months, so that seasons do not distort the picture.
• The price level. Import values are usually stated with delivery to the border included, while your price may be ex works (at your factory). Compare like with like.

Step 2. Start from official statistics

Official trade statistics give the total for a country and a code over many years. Useful sources:

• UN Comtrade, the United Nations trade database, with annual data from most countries and monthly data from many;
• ITC Trade Map, a more convenient interface over similar data, mostly free;
• national statistics offices, which often publish more detailed national codes and more recent months;
• for production: national statistics and industry associations; for agricultural products, FAOSTAT, the statistics database of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.

If the product is also produced locally, the size of the market is roughly local production plus imports minus exports. Economists call this apparent consumption. For many industrial products local production is unknown or confidential; then imports are your lower estimate of the market.

Know the limits of official statistics. International databases usually stop at 6 digits, so a broad code can mix your product with others. Data comes out with a delay of several months. Some countries report late or hide detail. In that case you can look at mirror statistics: what the other countries report as exports to this country. Mirror figures never match exactly, because of different valuation, timing and transit through third countries, but they give an order of magnitude.

Step 3. Check it with shipment data

Foreign trade shipment data adds up individual shipments into totals by company: the number of shipments, weight and value by month, the number of importers and suppliers, and how much the largest ones take. For the countries Orion Markets covers, this is what a report in Analyze markets by product shows; there is also a catalog of Ready-made research with more than 4,300 reports in 13 countries.

Shipment data adds what statistics do not have: who the buyers are and how big each of them is. This lets you estimate the market from the bottom up: the number of active importers times a typical annual purchase. If the bottom-up figure and the official one differ a lot, look for the reason before you trust either.

Example: imports of pipe valves and fittings into Pakistan

The free sample report pipe valves and fittings, imports into Pakistan (HS 848110, 848180 and 848190) shows in its "In brief" block:

• in 2026, 15,595 foreign trade shipments were recorded; our data for Pakistan starts in January 2026 and currently runs to September, so this is January to September and there is no comparison with 2025;
• the main partner countries by share of trade value: China 49.2%, the United Arab Emirates 12.5%, the United States 9.1%, Singapore 6.4%, Germany 5%;
• the page counts more than 1,700 importers and more than 3,300 exporters.

How to read it for market size:

• Be careful with scaling nine months up to a year. With data for one partial year you cannot compare with last year or check for a season. Multiplying by 12 and dividing by 9 gives only a rough first figure; check it against official annual statistics.
• Many buyers. More than 1,700 importers are too many to contact one by one. What matters is how much the largest ones take; the report shows each company's share and the HHI concentration index.
• Partner country is not country of origin. The partner country here is the country where the selling company is registered. The UAE has 12.5% of the value as a partner country, but in this data only about 2% as a country of origin: companies in the UAE mostly resell goods made elsewhere. For the country where goods were made, look at the product origin countries, which the report shows in a separate block.
• Three codes, not one product. The report adds up pressure-reducing valves, other valves and taps, and parts. If you sell only one of these, your market is a part of the total.
• China gives almost half of the value. A new supplier will compete mainly with Chinese prices and delivery times.

Sample reports like this are fully open to registered users at no cost. In other reports, shares, percentages, trends and the number of companies are visible straight away, while amounts, volumes and prices open on a paid plan.

Step 4. From the total market to your share of it

The total market is not what you can sell. Narrow it step by step:

• Segment. Remove the grades, sizes and price levels you do not offer. If you sell premium goods, the cheap part of the market is not yours.
• Large buyers with long contracts. If one importer takes half of the market and has a long-standing supplier, the part really open to you is much smaller.
• Duties and logistics. If competitors pay no duty or have a shorter route, part of the market is out of reach on price.
• Your capacity. Compare what is left with what you can produce and deliver in a year.

Write the result as a range with your assumptions next to it, for example "total imports, of which the mid-price segment, of which the buyers that work with several suppliers". When new data arrives, you will see which assumption changed.

Common mistakes

• Value instead of volume. A market can grow in dollars and shrink in tonnes when prices rise. Look at both.
• A code that is too broad. A 4-digit code (a whole product group) can include products you do not make. Go down to 6 digits, then to the national codes of your product.
• Re-exports and transit. Some countries import goods to ship them on. Their imports are not their consumption.
• One-off deliveries. A single large project, such as equipment for one plant, can double a year's imports. Check whether the growth is spread across many buyers.
• Adding statistics and shipment data together. They describe the same trade. Use one as the estimate and the other as the check.
• Forgetting the data lag. The latest month differs by country; compare equal periods.

Where to start

Open a ready report from Ready-made research or build your own in Analyze markets by product. To see a country's foreign trade as a whole, with its main product groups and partners, open Countries. If you are choosing between several countries, our guide How to choose a country for export shows how to compare them.