How to choose a country for export

Choose an export country by checking a few things in the same way for every candidate: how much of your product it imports and whether demand is growing, whether your delivered price fits the prices it actually pays, how many suppliers already compete there, which duties and restrictions apply to goods from your country, and whether you can deliver at a reasonable cost. Compare several countries side by side, then test the best one or two before you commit a budget.

Many exporters choose their first market by habit: a neighbouring country, a language someone in the team speaks, an invitation to a trade fair. These are fine reasons to break a tie between two good markets, but they should not decide the choice. Below is the order in which to check countries, what to look at in each step and how the Find new export markets section does part of this work for you.

Step 1. Make a long list of countries that import your product

Start with the product code. The HS code is the international product code used in foreign trade; its first 6 digits mean the same in almost every country, so you can compare countries on it. If you do not know your code, take it from your export documents.

For a first view of the whole world, use official trade statistics: UN Comtrade and ITC Trade Map (mostly free) show which countries import the product and roughly how much. Keep 10–15 countries where imports are noticeable. For countries where foreign trade shipment data is available, you can then look much deeper: at prices, companies and suppliers.

Step 2. Check demand: size and trend

• Size. How much the country imports in a year. Look at tonnes or pieces as well as value: value can grow only because prices went up.
• Trend. Compare the last six months with the six before, or a year with the year before. A large market that shrinks every year is harder to enter than a mid-sized one that grows.
• Number of buyers. If the whole market is two or three importers, your sales depend on each of them. Many buyers give you more chances.

How to estimate the size of a market and what can distort the numbers is covered in our guide How to estimate the market size for a product in a country.

Step 3. Compare your price with the prices the market pays

Many export plans fail on price. Compare your price with delivery included, for example CIF (cost, insurance and freight to the buyer's port), with the prices at which the product actually enters the country. Look at the spread, not just the average: what share of imports is bought at your price or higher? If almost nothing is bought at your price, the market is closed to you on price, however large it is. If only the expensive part of the market pays your price, you need a product and a message for that segment.

Step 4. Look at competition

• Concentration. If a few suppliers hold most of the market, you have to take customers away from them. If demand is spread across many suppliers, it is easier to get in.
• Openness to newcomers. Check whether new suppliers have appeared in recent months and whether they stayed. A market where buyers try new suppliers is easier to enter, but if most newcomers leave quickly, it is also easy to lose.
• Suppliers from your country. If they already sell there, the product and the route are proven. If suppliers from your country are strong in other markets but almost absent here, there may be room for you.

Step 5. Check duties, taxes and restrictions

• Import duty and VAT at the rate that applies to goods from your country.
• Trade agreements and customs unions. Competitors from a country with a trade agreement, or from the same customs union, may pay less duty or none. Inside the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), for example, goods move between member countries without import duty.
• Trade remedies. Anti-dumping duties (extra duties on goods sold below their home-market price) and similar measures can apply to goods from specific countries only.
• Bans and sanctions on your product or your country.
• Documents and certificates the market requires, such as product certificates, permits or labelling in the local language. Their cost and time belong in your calculation.

Step 6. Check logistics and payment

For cheap and heavy goods, freight can decide everything: a market that looks good on price can lose all its margin on the way. Get a rate from a freight forwarder (a company that organises transport for you) for the realistic route and lot size. Check also how buyers usually pay in that country, whether there are currency restrictions and how long payments take.

Step 7. Compare and choose one or two countries

Put the countries in one table with the same columns: demand and trend, your price compared with the market, competition, duties and restrictions, delivery cost. Pick one or two countries and test them: send offers to twenty importers from your list, take samples to a fair, run a trial shipment. Our guide How to find buyers abroad for your product describes the next step.

How Find new export markets helps

The Find new export markets section compares countries on these criteria from actual shipments. You enter a 6-digit HS code (or, after free sign-in, describe the product and get a suggested code) and your cost per kilogram; freight and the country of origin are optional but make the result more accurate. Then you confirm the national codes for each country, because each country splits a 6-digit code into its own more detailed codes.

The result is a ranking of countries. Each gets a score, a short verdict (Top pick, Worth a look, Tough market or Can skip) and the reasons behind it. Tags explain what affected the score, for example:

• Growing demand: imports in tonnes grew by 15% or more over the last six months compared with the six before;
• Price above market: your delivered price is higher than the price paid for 98% of the market's imports by value;
• Few suppliers hold the market and You're barely here, for competition and your country's position;
• Trade remedies and Duty-free within the EAEU, for duties.

For each country there is a detailed breakdown: shipments by month, your margin (cost, delivery and duties, market price), buyers, duty and VAT rates, trade restrictions for your country, trade remedies, required documents, freight forwarders and a freight rate benchmark, and how many new suppliers entered the market in six months and how many stayed.

Rankings and verdicts are open to everyone. Requirements, forwarders and distributors become available after you sign in or sign up; the full list of documents opens with the full analysis. Exact volumes, prices, competitor counts and your market share open on a paid plan.

Two limits to keep in mind. The section ranks only the countries where Orion Markets has shipment data, 14 at the moment, not the whole world; the list and periods are on the data coverage page. And a verdict shows how attractive a market is, not your chance of success: in historical shipment data for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, about 1 in 4 new suppliers is still shipping to a market six months later.

Example: gin from Italy

On 16 October 2026 we ran Find new export markets for gin (HS 220850) from Italy with a cost of 2 US dollars per kilogram. Here are five countries from the result:

• Colombia: score 70, Worth a look;
• the Philippines: 67, Worth a look;
• Uzbekistan: 67, Worth a look;
• Armenia: 58, Worth a look;
• Chile: 54, Tough market.

By the section's estimate, Chile imports the most gin of the five, yet it is rated lowest. One reason is the data: for Chile we have only January 2026, so the yearly figure is scaled up from one month, and a market with less than six months of data is not rated above Tough market until more data comes in. This holds outside the tool too: the largest market is not automatically the best, and a month or two of data is not enough for a firm conclusion. The Find new export markets page has an "Open this example" button that runs this search again with today's data.

Common mistakes

• Choosing by size alone. A large market with low prices and a few dominant suppliers can be worse than a small one that pays your price.
• Comparing different prices. Your factory price and the market's delivered price are not comparable. Add freight, insurance and duties first.
• Ignoring the duty gap. If competitors pay no duty and you do, you start with a higher price for the buyer.
• Too short a period. Two or three months can show a seasonal peak rather than real growth.
• Too many countries at once. A small team that tries ten markets usually does none of them properly. Start with one or two.

To compare countries for your product, enter your code and cost on Find new export markets. For one country and one product in depth, open Analyze markets by product.